Question:
Can HousingAlerts.com be used to predict commercial real estate appreciation trends?
Answer:
HousingAlerts specifically tracks local residential markets, but the cost/benefit and importance of knowing the residential market make it a no-brainer for any commercial investing. (The system uses repeat residential transactions because TA requires absolute accuracy — TA tracks and magnifies subtle changes.)
Most local cycles hit commercial and residential around the same time, with different lags. "Small" commercial (a 5- or 10-unit apartment) correlates more directly with residential than a big downtown office tower; retail is tightly tied to the local residential market. Generally, dead housing markets are weak commercial markets, and strong/emerging residential markets signal much stronger commercial upside.
Because future appreciation is by far the most sensitive variable to any project's success, the game is won or lost in the market-selection phase — everything else takes a back seat. So the FIRST decision is WHERE to invest:
- Market Selection — screen prospective commercial markets fast with HousingAlerts' residential outlook. (This is the most critical due-diligence step.)
- Micro-market research — vacancies, absorption, landlord concessions, etc.
- Deal specifics — NOI enhancement, rents vs. market, etc.
A "good deal" in a bad market severely limits your upside and eats your time and resources. There are always forced-appreciation deals in any market, but the massive wealth comes from automatic appreciation — being in the right place at the right time. Combine both: only do great deals in great markets.
On the new platform, do step 1 in minutes: rank markets by the Market Outlook Score in The Table and check the Wealth Phase on the Market Summary Report before you ever look at a specific commercial deal.